Basics of probability theory (sample space and events, probability definitions, conditional probabilities, Bayes rule); Descriptive statistics (measures, graphical representations); Uncertainty modeling (random variables, stochastic processes and extreme values); Estimation, statistical tests and model building ( Parameter estimation, Statistical tests, Model building and evaluation); Bayesian decision analysis. System definition, Systems view of integrated disaster management, System formulation examples, Simulation, System dynamics simulation, System approach to Disaster risk management, Source of uncertainty, Conceptual risk definition, Probabilistic approach, Engineering decisions under uncertainty, Decision making and integrated risk management: Individual decision making, Decision making in organizations, Decision making in government, Implementation of system analysis to management of disasters, Human behaviour during disasters