PRIMENA METODA JEDNOSTAVNOG EKSPONENCIJALNOG IZGLAĐIVANJA ZA PRORAČUN PROGNOZE PROTOKA PRIRODNOG GASA
Ključne reči:
Prognoza protoka prirodnog gasa, Metod jednostavnog eksponencijalnog izglađivanja
Apstrakt
U radu se razmatra problem prognoze protoka prirodnog gasa, koji se zbog minimalnog zagađenja životne sredine danas sve više koristi za zagrevanje objekata, naročito stambenih. Prvo je prikazan teorijski uvod i data postavka problema, a zatim je formiran matematički model za prognozu zasnovan na metodu jednostavnog eksponencijalnog izglađivanja. Numerička verifikacija matematičkog modela izvršena je na jednostavnoj test mreži. U tu svrhu, prethodno formirani model za prognozu razvijen je u programskom jeziku C#. Dobijeni rezultati predstavljeni su kroz dijagrame na osnovu kojih je izvršena analiza.
Reference
1. N.Aras: Forecasting Residential Consumption of Natural Gas Using Genetic Algorithms; Energy Exploration & Exploitation, 2008, Vol. 26, No. 4, pp. 241-266
2. S.R.Vitullo, R.H.Brown, G.F.Corliss, B.M.Marx: Mathematical Models for Natural Gas Forecasting; Canadian Applied Mathematical Quarterly, University of Alberta, Alberta, 2009, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 807-827
3. E.Ostertagova, O.Ostertag: The Simple Exponential Smoothing Model, The 4th International Conference on Modelling of Mechanical and Mechatronic Systems, Košice, September 2011, pp. 380-384
4. E.Ostertagova, O.Ostertag: Forecasting using simple exponential smoothing method; Acta Electrotechnica et Informatica, 2012, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 62-66
5. H.N.Akouemo, R.J.Povinelli: Probabilistic anomaly detection in natural gas time series data; International Journal of Forecasting, July-September 2016, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 948-956.
6. W.A.W.Abu Bakar, R.Ali: Natural Gas, Department Of Chemistry, University Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia, August 2010, Page 6.
7. S.Kim, H.Kim: A new metric of absolute percentage error in intermittent demand forecasts; International Journal of Forecasting, July-September 2016, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 669-679
8. L.Y.Ren: Revised Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) on Errors from Simple Exponential Smoothing Methods for Independent Normal Time Series; The Journal of American Academy of Business, 2007, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 65-70
2. S.R.Vitullo, R.H.Brown, G.F.Corliss, B.M.Marx: Mathematical Models for Natural Gas Forecasting; Canadian Applied Mathematical Quarterly, University of Alberta, Alberta, 2009, Vol. 17, No. 4, pp. 807-827
3. E.Ostertagova, O.Ostertag: The Simple Exponential Smoothing Model, The 4th International Conference on Modelling of Mechanical and Mechatronic Systems, Košice, September 2011, pp. 380-384
4. E.Ostertagova, O.Ostertag: Forecasting using simple exponential smoothing method; Acta Electrotechnica et Informatica, 2012, Vol. 12, No. 3, pp. 62-66
5. H.N.Akouemo, R.J.Povinelli: Probabilistic anomaly detection in natural gas time series data; International Journal of Forecasting, July-September 2016, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 948-956.
6. W.A.W.Abu Bakar, R.Ali: Natural Gas, Department Of Chemistry, University Teknologi Malaysia, Skudai, Johor, Malaysia, August 2010, Page 6.
7. S.Kim, H.Kim: A new metric of absolute percentage error in intermittent demand forecasts; International Journal of Forecasting, July-September 2016, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 669-679
8. L.Y.Ren: Revised Mean Absolute Percentage Errors (MAPE) on Errors from Simple Exponential Smoothing Methods for Independent Normal Time Series; The Journal of American Academy of Business, 2007, Vol. 10, No. 2, pp. 65-70
Objavljeno
2019-11-03
Sekcija
Elektrotehničko i računarsko inženjerstvo
